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Table of Contents   
LETTER TO THE EDITOR  
Year : 2012  |  Volume : 5  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 45-46
Japanese encephalitis and rainfall in Thailand: A study on clinic-geographical correlation


Wiwanitkit House, Bangkhae, Bangkok, Thailand

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Date of Web Publication13-Feb-2012
 

How to cite this article:
Wiwanitkit V. Japanese encephalitis and rainfall in Thailand: A study on clinic-geographical correlation. Ann Trop Med Public Health 2012;5:45-6

How to cite this URL:
Wiwanitkit V. Japanese encephalitis and rainfall in Thailand: A study on clinic-geographical correlation. Ann Trop Med Public Health [serial online] 2012 [cited 2018 May 23];5:45-6. Available from: http://www.atmph.org/text.asp?2012/5/1/45/92882
Sir,

Japanese encephalitis is an important mosquito borne infectious disease. This disease has a main neurological manifestation and accepted as one of the most important mosquito borne viral infections of neurological systems. [1] In Thailand, as a tropical country, the geographical appearance can help promote the distribution of this disease. The climate of Thailand is classified as a tropical monsoon type with average temperature equal to 30°C and average rainfall equal to 10.5 inches. In addition, there are many possible reservoir animals, the pig, for Japanese encephalitis in every part of Thailand.

The author hereby uses a standard medicogeographical analysis to assess the correlation between prevalence of Japanese encephalitis and rainfall in Thailand. The objective of this work is study on the relationship between rainfall, an important geographical parameter, and the prevalence of Japanese encephalitis in Thailand. The author focused to study on this only geographical parameter due to the fact that the data on this geographic parameter is completely recorded in Thailand, while those for other parameters are not. The method for gathering data on prevalence of disease (Thai CDC. Available: http:// epid.moph..go.th: Accessed 1 March 2010) and rainfall (Royal Irrigation Department Thailand. Available: http://www.rid.go.th/bid/bid.html: Accessed 1 March 2010) in this work is based on the already published protocol in the previous studies of the author. [2],[3]

Primary data on the rainfall and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis were shown in [Figure 1]. Averages for prevalence and rainfall are equal to 1.2 (/100,000) and 9.1 (inches) respectively. In this study, the derived least square equation plot prevalence (Y) versus rainfall (X) is Y = 1.4X - 1.2 (r = 0.68, p < 0.05). The predicted prevalence of Japanese encephalitis based on the rainfall distribution in Thailand is shown in [Figure 2]. The predicted prevalence range from 0 to 4 with the highest peak at the middle part of the country. In this work, the correlation between the rainfall (transformed from the geographical data) and the prevalence of Japanese encephalitis (transformed from the overall infection rate of Japanese encephalitis) is investigated for Thai scenario. All data were based on the basic monthly recorded data hence the lag effect can be solved [Figure 1]. It can be seen that although the correlation can be detected but the correlation coefficient is not strong. This might imply that there can be other factors affecting the finalized prevalence of Japanese encephalitis in Thailand. The author also altogether performs another study on another factor, relative humidity, and the result is during validation and reporting.
Figure 1: Primary data on the rainfall and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis

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Figure 2: Predicted prevalence of Japanese encephalitis based on the rainfall distribution in Thailand

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   References Top

1.Wiwanitkit V. Japanese encephalitis. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2007;2:183-92.  Back to cited text no. 1
    
2.Wiwanitkit V. Correlation between rainfall and the prevalence of malaria in Thailand. J Infect 2006;52:227-30.   Back to cited text no. 2
[PUBMED]  [FULLTEXT]  
3.Wiwanitkit V. An observation on correlation between rainfall and the prevalence of clinical cases of dengue in Thailand. J Vector Borne Dis 2006;43:73-6.  Back to cited text no. 3
[PUBMED]  [FULLTEXT]  

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Correspondence Address:
Viroj Wiwanitkit
Wiwanitkit House, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160
Thailand
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/1755-6783.92882

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  [Figure 1], [Figure 2]



 

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