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Table of Contents   
LETTER TO THE EDITOR  
Year : 2017  |  Volume : 10  |  Issue : 4  |  Page : 1069
Predicted seasonal reproduction number of Zika virus infection: A mathematical model simulation analysis for cases in Thailand


Suvannhabhumi Clinical Training, Research and Development Center, Institute of Natural Medicine Science Development and Establishment Project, Surindra Rajabhat University, Surin Province, Surin, Thailand

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Date of Web Publication5-Oct-2017
 

How to cite this article:
Wiwanitkit V. Predicted seasonal reproduction number of Zika virus infection: A mathematical model simulation analysis for cases in Thailand. Ann Trop Med Public Health 2017;10:1069

How to cite this URL:
Wiwanitkit V. Predicted seasonal reproduction number of Zika virus infection: A mathematical model simulation analysis for cases in Thailand. Ann Trop Med Public Health [serial online] 2017 [cited 2020 Aug 11];10:1069. Available from: http://www.atmph.org/text.asp?2017/10/4/1069/196662


Dear Sir,

Zika virus infection is presently seen worldwide and there are more than million affected cases. This disease already exists in southeast Asia, where the highly endemic area of dengue is known. Recently, the relationship between dengue and season has been confirmed. A recent mathematical model study also showed the seasonal reproduction number in dengue cases in Thailand due to effect of climate.[1] Since Zika virus and dengue virus share the common mosquito vector, the similar seasonal variation of Zika virus infection can be expected in case an outbreak occurs in this area. Here, the author uses the technique described by Polwiang [1] for generation of the predicted model. The interrelationship between dengue and Zika virus as recently reported in immunological study by Wikan et al.[2] is used as an important data for modification of the primary model by Polwiang.[1] The predicted seasonal reproduction number of Zika virus infection is derived as shown in [Figure 1]. According to the model, similar to dengue, the rapid increase in predicted incidence can be seen in mid of the year during rainy season. This can also confirm the recent report that rainfall is strongly related to predicted prevalence of Zika virus infection in Thailand.[3] It is no doubt that Zika virus infection will become a serious problem in Thailand if the disease can settle and outbreak occurs in the near future.
Figure 1: The number of predicted monthly Zika virus infection incidences generated by the model

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Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.



 
   References Top

1.
Polwiang S. The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever: Impacts of climate on transmission. PeerJ 2015;3:e1069.  Back to cited text no. 1
[PUBMED]    
2.
Wikan N, Suputtamongkol Y, Yoksan S, Smith DR, Auewarakul P. Immunological evidence of Zika virus transmission in Thailand. Asian Pac J Trop Med 2016;9:141-4.  Back to cited text no. 2
[PUBMED]    
3.
Wiwanitkit S, Wiwanitkit V, Predicted pattern of Zika virus infection distribution with reference to rainfall in Thailand. Asian Pac J Trop Med 2016;9:719-20.  Back to cited text no. 3
    

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Correspondence Address:
Viroj Wiwanitkit
Wiwanitkit House, Bangkhae, Bangkok
Thailand
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/1755-6783.196662

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